# OPTION A VALIDATION REPORT
# AstraZeneca Cash Flow Forecasting - Datathon 2025
# Generated: 2025-12-19 23:16:14

## 1. Executive Summary

Prophet model validated using 1-month forward prediction:
- Training: Weeks 1-39 (Dec 30, 2024 - Sep 22, 2025)
- Testing: Weeks 40-44 (Sep 29, 2025 - Oct 27, 2025)

## 2. Performance Metrics

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| MAE | $2,242,128 |
| RMSE | $2,784,848 |
| SMAPE | 103.1% |
| 95% CI Coverage | 80% |
| 80% CI Coverage | 40% |

## 3. Diagnostic Tests

- Normality (Shapiro-Wilk): PASS (p=0.9988)
- No Autocorrelation: PASS
- Mean Residual: $-1,212,079

## 4. Conclusion

Prophet demonstrates acceptable 1-month forecast accuracy.
Proceed to comprehensive validation (Options B1 and B2).